Scale Signal

Long-horizon repository work exposes both viable agentic action and a large reliability gap

September 21, 2025 · Deng et al.
ApparitionSelectionContextExecutionVerification
Evidence boundary: The benchmark spans 1,865 problems and 41 repositories, but under a unified scaffold the strongest reported public-set result is 23.3% Pass@1 and the strongest commercial-set result is 17.8%. The source therefore documents both repeated autonomous success and a large remaining reliability boundary on long-horizon repository work.
Evidence record

Source → Observed → Interpretation → Model implication

SOURCE

SWE-Bench Pro: Can AI Agents Solve Long-Horizon Software Engineering Tasks?

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OBSERVED

SWE-Bench Pro contains 1,865 human-verified and human-augmented problems from 41 actively maintained repositories spanning business applications, B2B services, and developer tools.

The benchmark is partitioned into 731 public problems from 11 repositories, 276 commercial problems from 18 proprietary startup repositories, and 858 held-out problems from 12 repositories.

The selected tasks are intentionally long-horizon and non-trivial. Reference solutions average 107.4 changed lines across 4.1 files, every problem requires at least 10 lines of change, and more than 100 tasks require over 100 lines of modification.

Each task gives an agent a codebase and a human-augmented task description containing the problem statement, requirements, and when relevant an explicit interface. The agent must produce a patch that satisfies human-reviewed tests.

The evaluation uses the SWE-Agent scaffold with the same basic prompt format across models, enables tool use where possible, and allows a maximum of 200 turns per task.

On the 731-problem public set, GPT-5 reached 23.3% Pass@1 and Claude Opus 4.1 reached 22.7%. All reported public-set model results remained below 25%.

On the 276-problem commercial set, Claude Opus 4.1 reached 17.8% Pass@1 and GPT-5 reached 14.9%, with all reported results below 20%.

Resolution rates varied substantially by programming language and repository. The paper reports generally stronger results on Python and Go, more variable results on JavaScript and TypeScript, and repository-level rates ranging from below 10% on some repositories to above 50% for some model-repository pairs.

The authors' trajectory analysis reports that larger models often failed on semantic or algorithmic correctness during large multi-file edits, while smaller models more often failed through syntax or formatting errors, tool use, or context-management problems.

INTERPRETATION

The benchmark provides direct evidence that agentic engineering actors can perform meaningful repository-level work without continuous human operation: an agent is given a codebase and task, operates through a software-engineering scaffold and tools for up to 200 turns, and sometimes produces a patch that passes the task's verification suite. At the same time, appearance is clearly not equivalent to professional reliability. Most long-horizon tasks remain unresolved even for the strongest evaluated models. The wide performance differences across repositories, languages, public versus commercial codebases, and model sizes further refine Selection: a fixed scaffold does not produce uniform viability when the engineering environment and task distribution change.

MODEL IMPLICATION

REFINES. SWE-Bench Pro supports C01 by documenting repeated meaningful autonomous software-engineering action, while refining C02 by showing strong differential effectiveness across models and repository environments under a common scaffold. It sharpens the boundary between an agentic actor existing and that actor being reliable enough for broad long-horizon engineering work. It also suggests that Context, Execution, and Verification conditions must be evaluated against the repository and task regime rather than treated as universally sufficient once an agent can act at all.

Epistemic boundaries

What this does not establish

OPEN QUESTION

Which repository, task, context, execution, and verification characteristics most strongly determine whether long-horizon coding agents move from occasional benchmark success to reliable repeated engineering operation?